Séminaire IdA-IRSEM: Enjeux Stratégiques dans les Amériques
Geopolitical new normal:
(dis)continuities of the Chinese and Russian presence in Latin America
Séance du 1er avril 2021.
Intervenant: Victor M. Mijares (Universidad de los Andes)
Discutants: Paul Charon (IRSEM), Emmanuel Dreyfus (IRSEM), Maxime Audinet (IRSEM)
Présentation: In the 21st century, China and Russia have approached Latin America in parallel, but with different approaches and rates. The first and main explanation has been geostrategic, presuming that it is due to a policy of balancing against the US. However, a complementary explanation is that both Eurasian powers are trying to obtain material advantages beyond the strategic positioning in the Americas. This double motivation for rapprochement is combined with the increasingly open invitations from Latin American governments. But others, differences are perceived in how Beijing and Moscow look and act in the region, motivated by domestic political logic. On the one hand, China's policy towards Latin America has been subject to leadership changes. On the other, Russia's policy has been linked to the dynamics of the selectorate that supports Putin's power group. The only apparent constant is that the Chinese and Russian presence is now part of the Latin American landscape. Additionally, both great powers have become models for the incursion of other Eurasian powers, with the risk of greater authoritarian learning and cooperation.